India Wants To Weaponize Water To Whip Warlords

India's Home Minister Amit Shah — the most powerful cabinet official in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's inner circle — recently made a statement to The Times of India that has the potential to shake the very foundations of South Asian diplomacy. He declared that India would never return to the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan.

It was an explosive declaration intended to keep maximum pressure on Islamabad to dismantle terror networks that have repeatedly targeted the Indian Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir. But it was also a message: if Pakistan continues to harbor and support militant groups, India is prepared to leverage every tool available, including water. Pakistan immediately denounced the move, calling it an "act of war" and warning that as a nuclear-armed state, it would respond with full force to any such provocation.

The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank and signed in 1960, has withstood the test of time through wars, border skirmishes, and deadly terrorist strikes. At the time of the Treaty's signing, neither India nor Pakistan possessed nuclear weapons. The fledgling nations, barely 13 years into independence, were battling poverty on a monumental scale. India, even then, had begun to chart a path of industrial development, heavily supported by Soviet aid, whereas Pakistan relied increasingly on Western backing.

The Treaty is, by many accounts, one of the most one-sided international agreements ever signed, where 80% of the waters from the Indus and its tributaries flow to Pakistan, with only 20% remaining for India. Yet, for over 65 years, India has upheld its end of the bargain, continuing to release life-giving water to Pakistan's arid plains even as Pakistani-backed terror groups targeted Indian civilians and soldiers. Ironically, India's generosity has helped Pakistan achieve agricultural self-sufficiency in several key crops and enabled it to export food grown in the fertile Indus Valley.

The geography of the Himalayas blesses both countries. From its glaciers emerge some of the world's most voluminous and perennial rivers. But this blessing is under siege: explosive population growth and mismanagement of natural resources have brought both nations to a critical juncture. India, now the world's most populous country, is facing unprecedented stress on its water and agricultural systems. Pakistan, with a smaller population but greater density and a weaker industrial base, survives by borrowing endlessly from China, the International Monetary Fund, and allied countries, and is trapped in a debt spiral.

Following the events of 9/11, Pakistan received billions in aid from the Bush administration in exchange for its support in the ‘War on Terror.’ While Islamabad publicly denounced terrorism, its powerful military and intelligence services privately funneled resources to extremist organizations. Their logic was simple: the West would leave eventually — but India would always remain their rival.

The results of this duplicity have been catastrophic. Terrorist attacks originating from Pakistani soil have killed hundreds in India — including the 2001 attack on the Indian Parliament, the 2008 Mumbai carnage, and countless assaults on security forces and civilians in Kashmir. Despite this, no Indian government has ever walked away from the Indus Waters Treaty. Even as blood spilled, India continued to honor the Treaty, becoming a model nation to look up to in a world where promises are regularly broken.

Now, with the Home Minister's declaration that the suspension of the Treaty following the April 24 attack near Srinagar could become permanent, water diplomacy between the two nations has entered uncharted territory. His statement is not without domestic support. A respected academic and former government advisor recently argued in these very pages that India must reassert its rights over the Indus waters. If this issue were put to a popular vote in India, the Home Minister's stance would likely win by a wide margin.

But that doesn't make it the right choice.

In all geopolitical conflicts, a principle must remain sacred: civilians should not be punished for the sins of their governments. When Russia bombs civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, claiming to target military installations, the world rightly reacts with outrage. When Iranian missiles fall on Israeli cities during times of heightened conflict, global condemnation follows — even if those are acts of retaliation.

Cutting off water supply to ordinary Pakistanis would be tantamount to triggering a humanitarian catastrophe among those already living under a corrupt and regressive leadership. Famine, cholera outbreaks, and epidemics would follow, affecting millions. It would be the equivalent of launching a weapon of mass destruction.

India, today a nation that has surpassed Japan in GDP, launched a mission to the lunar south pole, risen to become a voice on the world stage through the G20, and demonstrated its leadership in technology and science, must not stoop to medieval retribution. Yes, India has genuine grievances. Yes, Pakistan has violated every standard of international decency in its decades-long sponsorship of terrorism. But India must not descend into tit-for-tat barbarism in retaliation.

India should target its responses precisely: neutralize terror camps, sanction individuals and organizations, and leverage international diplomatic pressure to isolate Pakistan. Simultaneously, it should uphold moral leadership, reject tribal revenge, and keep the waters flowing. In the long run, India should help Pakistan grow. A Pakistan with a growing economy and modern governance won't sponsor terror, just as post-war Germany, Italy, and Japan became democratic, peaceful allies, and among the world's wealthiest nations.

India should invest in peace, not because Pakistan deserves it, but because it upholds India's values.

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